ufc on fox holm shevchenko
ufc on fox via UFC/WME-IMG

Mixed martial arts is a very tough sport to bet on. Upsets happen in this sport on an event-to-event basis and laying a lot of money on a favourite is a high-risk low-reward endeavor that will frustrate most bettors and blindly throwing money at underdogs is also inviting of trouble. But on every occasion, there are rewarding odds that can be lucrative even for the cheapest gamblers around. “Cheap Shot” is an article series that will look to be a long-term winner based solely on underdog bets and prop bets.

Cheap Shot System:

We’ll begin with an initial deposit of $1,000 and use one unit or one per cent of your bankroll ($10) as a standard bet. The props and underdog odds on these articles are based on 5Dimes. Some sportsbooks do not offer these same props and lines are subject to change. Our track record and current balance will be updated per article with results back from the previous event.

Initial Balance: $1,000
Current Balance:
$995
Difference: -$5 (-0.5%)
Bets: 4 for 14 (28.57%)

Last Event: UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs Lineker (0-2; -$20)

Here are the props and an underdog to consider betting for UFC on FOX: Holm vs Shevchenko:  

Valentina Shevchenko (+250)

Women’s Bantamweight (135): Holly Holm (-300) vs Valentina Shevchenko (+250)

Shevchenko is the sexy underdog bet for this event and for good reason. The main eventer is a multiple-time kickboxing champion with wins over strawweight champion, Joanna Jedrzejczyk and unbeaten pro kickboxer, Caley Reece. In an MMA fight, none of this seems to really matter but Shevchenko is taking on a pure striker in Holm who will not be shooting for takedowns. The fight will stay contested on the feet or in the clinch for majority of the fight.

While Holm possesses the niftier footwork and more elaborate game plan under Greg Jackson, Shevchenko will be the one to push the action. She’ll get into striking range up close where she can land her patented body shots and spinning back kicks. She’ll also tie-up Holm in the clinch where she can land some knees and elbows. Holm will utilize her deadly kicks and play pitter-patter with Shevchenko but judges tend to favour the fighter coming forward, which will be the underdog. Play Shevchenko now before she keeps getting bet down.

If you’re also feeling gutsy, Shevchenko to win by T/KO is at +750. Holm is difficult to hit but her chin is not the best and a precise striker like Shevchenko can catch Holm like Raquel Pennington did in her debut fight. Crazier things have happened.

Play: risk 1 unit ($10) to win 2.5 units ($25)

Prazeres wins by Decision (+120)

Lightweight (155): Michel Prazeres (-235) vs J.C. Cottrell (+195)

Prazeres is a spiritual successor to Gleison Tibau. The Brazilian has a similar stocky build and a tendency to take fights to the distance. Ten of his last 12 fights all ended in decision including all five of his UFC bouts. Cottrell is a well-rounded action fighter from the Legacy Fighting Championships who is taking the fight on short notice.

Cottrell has a few submission wins on his resume but good luck submitting the brute that is Prazeres. Odds indicate Prazeres will use his size, strength and toughness to barrel his way past Cottrell but the newcomer is also durable in his own right. A straight bet on Prazeres may be warranted but him to win by decision is at plus money and that’s worth a play.

Play: risk 1 unit ($10) to win 1.2 units ($12)

Luis Henrique (+140)

Heavyweight (265): Dmitry Smoliakov (-160) vs Luis Henrique (+140)

It’s tough to bet on a fighter who just got brutally knocked out in his last fight. But that was against the enormous Francis Ngannou who also decimated the equally gargantuan Curtis Blaydes. Despite being 6’3”, Henrique looks more like a blown up light heavyweight but the same can be said for his opponent, Smoliakov.

Smoliakov is 8-0 with all eight wins coming via first-round finish. The guy is a classic can crusher but let’s see what he’s made of in his first fight in the big league. He’s expected to beat Henrique and he could knock him out quickly but if he doesn’t, he runs the risk of getting out-grinded to a late finish or decision. Take a small shot at Henrique to do the latter.

Play: risk 0.75 unit ($7.50) to win 1.05 units ($10.50)

* * *

Total: risking 2.75 units ($27.50) to win 4.75 units ($47.50)

*Lines subject to change

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